The Riddle of Rehoboam - 1 Kings 11:1-13,26-41; 12:1-24; 2 Chronicles 10-12
This study tries to understand what was going on in Rehoboam's mind back then, and the same kinds of things that can go on in people's minds today, including our own.
1. In 1 Ki 11:1-13, what kind of a father role do you think Solomon was for Rehoboam, teaching him to be a wise king?
2. 1 Ki 12:21-24 and 2 Chr 11:2-4, Since God ordained this division, was Rehoboam powerless (and thus perhaps guiltless) in what he did?
3. In 1 Ki 12:22-24 and 2 Chronicles 10:1-19; 11:1-43, who precisely caused the division: God, Solomon, Rehoboam, or Jeroboam?
4. In 1 Ki 12:22-24, who caused the division to continue?
5. In 1 Ki 12:25-33, who caused the subsequent idolatry from the division?
6. In 2 Ch10:14, how often do you think Rehoboam stayed awake wondering if he had treated anyone unfairly, like King Ahasuerus (Xerxes I) did in Esth 6:1-3?
7. In 1 Ki 12:21, do we have any (other) indication that Rehoboam was unintelligent?
8. In 1 Ki 11:26-35, how did Jeroboam enter the picture?
9. 1 Ki 12:6-11, what information (if any) was Rehoboam missing?
10. In 1 Ki 12:6-8, if someone advised "don't do this, or the kingdom will split" why would Rehoboam have rejected that?
11. In 1 Ki 12:6-11, when advisors say conflicting things, how do you tell which advisors are right? – how did Rehoboam?
12. Why did Rehoboam not consult the prophet of God?
13. How do the benefits of a particular choice often cloud our judgment on the downsides of that choice?
14. What would life be like if you imagined that you could never die?
The Riddle of Foolish Decisions - 2 Chronicles 10-12
1. In 1 Ki 12:1 and 2 Chr 10:1, why would Rehoboam go to Shechem?
2. In 2 Chr 10:4 and 1 Ki 12:4, why would the people complain, if they shared in Solomon's wealth?
3. In 2 Chr 10:5, what do you think Rehoboam told them to come back after three days?
4. In 2 Chr 10:6-7, today, what kinds of advisors might be giving good advice, but they are often overlooked?
5. In 2 Chr 10:8-12, today, what kinds of advisors might be trusted, even though they often give wrong advice?
6. In 2 Chronicles 10:11, what are some examples of someone deciding a certain way solely to show how tough they are?
7. In 2 Chr 10:11, when, if ever, should you speak insultingly to someone?
8. In 1 Ki 12:18, why did Rehoboam then send Adoram/Hadoram, the chief of revenue?
9. Today, how do you evaluate the severity of a risk?
10. What are some bad ways that people evaluate risk?
11. In 1 Ki 12:13, how do some people today say, "my little finger is thicker than my father's waist"?
12. Today, how should you evaluate the probability of a bad result happening?
13. What are some foolish ways that people make decisions?
The Riddle of Rehoboam - 1 Kings 11:1-13,26-41; 12:1-24; 2 Chronicles 10-12 – some brief answers
Feb. 20, 2023 version
This study tries to understand what was going on in Rehoboam's mind back then, and the same kinds of things that can go on in people's minds today, including our own.
Q: In 1 Ki 12:21, do we have any (other) indication that Rehoboam was unintelligent?
A: There is no sign that Rehoboam was stupid or unintelligent. A person can be intelligent and still be very foolish. Being foolish does not mean you are incapable of thinking prudently about something, but rather that you choose not to think prudently about something.
If wisdom is applied knowledge, foolishness could be not having the knowledge, but more often it is having the knowledge, or at least access to that knowledge, and refusing to apply it.
Q: In 1 Ki 11:26-35, how did Jeroboam enter the picture?
A: Jeroboam was a good leader that Solomon put in charge of the labor force from Joseph. The prophet Ahijah met Jeroboam and told him that God was going to give him ten tribes of Israel to rule over. Later in 1 Kings 11:40 Solomon learned that Jeroboam was rebellious and tried to have him killed, but Jeroboam fled to Egypt and became friends with the Pharoah. But after Solomon's death Jeroboam came back in 1 Kings 12:1-3.
Q: Why did Rehoboam not consult the prophet of God?
A: On one hand, perhaps it was understandable if he was not aware of any prophets in Israel. On the other hand, if he were a godly king, he would have wanted to know if there were godly prophets in Israel and have them advise him.
Since the prophet said that the division was caused by the Lord, and the two armies both went home, you might think that Rehoboam and Jeroboam obeyed the prophet. Yet 1 Kings 14:30 and 2 Chronicles 12:15 say that Rehoboam and Jeroboam fought all their days.
God judged Rehoboam for making idols in 1 Kings 14:21-24
Q: How do the benefits of a particular choice often cloud our judgment on the downsides of that choice?
A: &&&
We are prone to tunnel vision.
Q: What would life be like if you imagined that you could never die?
A: Be careful reading the question. I did not say: imagine you would never die. Rather, imagine that you thought you could never die, and you were greatly mistaken. Some teenagers do it all the time. Drag racing, anyone? Like a TV or movie action hero, you would completely ignore the risk of doing something. Some people might think you very brave, until a catastrophe happens. Then those same people will think you were very stupid.
If you think about it, we have lots of training on how to make decisions, for most of the movies and TV series that we watch. The hero, instead of doing things in a less risky way, takes great risk, often unnecessarily, and luckily always come out ahead due to his or her risky behavior. Even in real life, we look at great heroes, like Ernest Shackelford, who after foolishly getting his ship stuck in the ice, heroically kept his men together so that not one of them was lost. We tend to overlook other explorers, like Roald Amundsen, who actually succeeded in reaching the south pole (as well as the north pole), without making foolish decisions that got his ship stuck in ice, imperiling the crew.
On the other hand, if people evaluated risk and made wise decision, Las Vegas would be bankrupted, reduced to nothing more than a large arcade where people knowingly threw away small amounts of money for fun.
The Riddle of Foolish Decisions - 2 Chronicles 10-12
Q: In 1 Ki 12:18, what are some bad ways that people evaluate risk?
A: Before looking at wise ways of evaluating risk, let's first look at a number of foolish ways that we should eliminate from our decision-making process. &&&
Familiarity : how long you have been exposed to the risk.
Understanding exactly the risk
What others think
The benefit of taking that risk, might make the risk appear smaller.
The repeatability of the risk (zeolites, 0.2 probability 100 times): The serial swindler with no exit strategy
Framing something as a gain instead of a loss
Algebraic risk (1+x)(1-x)
Bayesian probability and foolish programmers
Gain $100 vs. lose $100. Gain a lot vs. wipe out everything?
(x+1)(x-1)
Movies and TV frequently teach really, really bad examples of evaluating risk.
Q: Today, how should you evaluate the probability of a bad result happening?
A:
Nuclear plants off by 30X
Q: What are some foolish ways that people make decisions?
A: &&&
Aristotle cataloged thirteen types of logical fallacies in Sophistical Refutations
Why do people decide to take drugs? Why do people decide to get drunk?
10% chance vs. 100% change
Whizbangy
Thought powerless to do anything about it. Or they wish to think they are powerless to do anything about it.
Politics and voters Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman – Prospect theory - People make choices based on rules of thumb, not rational choices based on their self-interest.
Reference book Nobel prize winners
California and drugs
How well do you know the odds. Do you know what you don't know? Peter Lynch
Chance of having the same birthday as someone else in a room of 20 people? Chance of dying doing a risky behavior 1/265.25
The birthday problem
2 people sharing the same birthday. K = number of people. n = number of days in a year
P approx. = 1 – exp(-k(k-1)/(2*n))
For 365
18S 33%
23 is 50%
32 is 67%
42 is 90%
For of 170
12 is 33%
16 is 51%
20 is 69%
For 3 people sharing the same birthday (365)
88 people 50%
by Steven M. Morrison, PhD.
The Linda problem (conjunction fallacy)
Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations.
Which is more probable?
1. Linda is a bank teller.
2. Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement.
There are 100 persons who fit the Linda's description above. How many of them are:
· Bank tellers? __ of 100
· Bank tellers and active in the feminist movement? __ of 100
We make thousands of decisions every day.
Aristotle cataloged thirteen types of logical fallacies in Sophistical Refutations
The anchoring fallacy Tversky and Kahneman
Correlation proves causality.
Red herring
Sunk cost fallacy.
Omniscience (everybody knows it)
Ad-hominem
Circular reasoning
satisficing to describe the process of finding the first solution that is satisfactory and sufficient.
representativeness, availability, and anchoring and adjustment.
The planning fallacy is a phenomenon in which predictions about how much time will be needed to complete a future task display an optimism bias and underestimate the time needed. This phenomenon sometimes occurs regardless of the individual's knowledge that past tasks of a similar nature have taken longer to complete than generally planned.
The Sydney Opera House was expected to be completed in 1963. A scaled-down version opened in 1973, a decade later. The original cost was estimated at $7 million, but its delayed completion led to a cost of $102 million.[10]
The Eurofighter Typhoon defense project took six years longer than expected, with an overrun cost of 8 billion euros.[10]
The Big Dig which undergrounded the Boston Central Artery was completed seven years later than planned,[19] for $8.08 billion on a budget of $2.8 billion (in 1988 dollars).[20]
The Denver International Airport opened sixteen months later than scheduled, with a total cost of $4.8 billion, over $2 billion more than expected.[21]
The Berlin Brandenburg Airport is another egregious case. After 15 years of planning, construction began in 2006, with the opening planned for October 2011. There were numerous delays. It was finally opened on October 31, 2020. The original budget was €2.83 billion; current projections are close to €10.0 billion.
California High-Speed Rail is still under construction, with tens of billions of dollars in overruns expected, and connections to major cities postponed until after completion of the rural segment.
Berossus was Bêl-re'ušunu